While most Consumers are excited for the holidays, with continuing high inflation (+7.7% Oct 2022 vs Oct 2021), they are expected to be more deliberate in what they buy.
Picture: WSJ - PHOTO: KENA BETANCUR/GETTY IMAGES
1. This year’s overall Black Friday sales grew vs last year, although some $ growth is due to higher prices.
A record 196.7 million Americans shopped in stores and online from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday, up +17 million from 2021 [NRF]
Shoppers spent an average of $325.44 on holiday purchases up +8% from 2021 [NRF]
Retail sales between Thanksgiving and this past Sunday rose +10.9% vs 2021 [Mastercard SpendingPulse]
2. Holiday Sales started much earlier driven by both Consumers and Retailers:
Consumers are worried prices will rise in the holidays and last year’s inventory issues may persist – they want to ensure they get what they need in time
Retailers want to offload high inventory of items people are now less interested in and know it will be competitive market with high inflation continuing.
56% of shoppers took advantage of early holiday sales before Thanksgiving; 24% before Nov. 16 and 36% week leading up to Thanksgiving (Nov. 16-23). [NRF]
3. Brick and mortar sales grew as people came back to stores (COVID restrained in 2021)
More than 122.7 million people visited bricks-and-mortar stores over the weekend, up +17% from 2021 [NRF]
4. Digital sales grew but at a slower pace as more consumers shifted to in-store and buying earlier
130.2 million shopped online, +2% increase over 2021 [NRF]
Online sales grew vs same days in 2021: Black Friday +2.3% to $9.12 billion, Thanksgiving +2.9% to $5.3B, Cyber Monday still biggest day for online spending annually, grew +5.8% to $11.3B [Adobe Analytics]
5. Many product categories, had deeper discounts on Cyber Monday vs last year
Mostly those with high inventory, including toys, computers, appliances and apparel [Adobe]
Top sellers included Pokémon cards, Legos, and Hot Wheels among toys, Apple MacBooks and AirPods among tech items, smart TVs and air fryers [Adobe]
6. What's next?
NRF forecasts Holiday (Nov 1 to Dec 31) retail sales will grow 6% to 8% over 2021 to between $942.6 billion and $960.4 billion.
“On average, consumers say they are almost halfway (47%) done with their holiday shopping … leaving plenty of room for additional purchases in the remaining weeks of the year.” [NRF]
More Insights:
WSJ: Black Friday Weekend Drew Millions of Shoppers Back to Stores Nov 29, 2022 article