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U.S. Population Growth hits record lows in 2020-2022

👪 US Census Bureau’s Dec’22 report found, for year ending Jul 1, 2022 population growth has stalled. This has implications for people and business.


Source: Brookings

First, some stats:

🌎 Total USA:

  • US Population grew by only +0.4% vs prior year, 2nd lowest in history after 2021’s growth of +0.1%.

  • The U.S. added 1.3 million people to a total of 333.3 million.

    • {🧐What a fun number to remember!}

  • There were 245,000 more births than deaths, leading to a 2% increase in the birthrate.

  • 80% of population growth came from immigration, up from 40% a decade ago.


Source: Vintage 2022 Population Estimates, DEC. 22, 2022

🗺 Geographic:

The nation’s move westward and south continued.

⇑ The South saw population growth of +1.1%, while the West gained +0.2%.

⇓ The Midwest lost -0.1% and the Northeast declined -0.4%.

🗾 States:

A staggering 24 states had more deaths than births, largely due to the pandemic and declining birthrates prior to Covid-19.

⇑ The states with the largest percentage gains were Florida, Idaho, South Carolina, and Texas.

⇓ 18 states, including New York, Illinois, and Louisiana, experienced a decrease in population.


Source: William H. Frey analysis of U.S. Census Bureau intercensal estimates

Despite slow growth, the U.S. is projected to continue growing through the middle of the century. (Compared to shrinking populations in Japan, Germany, Italy, Greece and Portugal. “China’s population of 1.4 billion might have peaked, growing just 0.03% in 2021”).

📉 IMPLICATIONS:

There are many potential challenges from stalled population growth, e.g.:

  • Stagnating economy due to a decrease in demand for goods and services including housing.

  • Fewer jobs and a reduced labor force, including to support an aging population.

  • Geographic migration resulting in business opportunities (for where people move to) and risks (where they move out of).

For more learning:

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